4/9/2022

Poker Independent Chip Model

In a poker tournament, the Independent Chip Model (ICM) is a mathematical model that is used to more precisely calculate overall equity in a tournament.

  • The Independent Chip Model, or ICM as it’s more commonly referred to, is a mathematical model used in the late stages of tournaments to calculate your total equity in the prize pool, the money you stand to make in the tournament.
  • In poker, the Independent Chip Model (ICM) is a mathematical model used to calculate a player's overall equity in a tournament. The model uses stack sizes alone to determine how often a player will finish in each position (1st, 2nd, etc.).
IndependentPoker Independent Chip Model

ICM: Independent Chip Model. The independent chip model (ICM) is a formulaic method of determining what a player's current chip stack in a poker tournament is worth in real money. To simplify, ICM helps figure out how much a player will earn on average depending on how many chips he or she has in the tournament at a given time.

Poker Independent Chip Model

Due to chip stack values changing over time as the tournament progresses with the remaining players getting closer to the money, each player must take into account the rewards/risks of any play they make with respect to their equity.

The basic assumption of the ICM model is based on stack sizes and the prize pool distribution. Each player has a chance to win the tournament exactly equal to the proportion of chips they have in play. So if you have 30% of the chips in play, you have 30% chance to win the tournament.

Poker Independent Chip Models

A player’s probability of finishing the tournament in each expected position is then multiplied by the payout for that position and this calculation is what determines the players overall equity.

This concept would be unfamiliar to cash game poker players, but using ICM considerations in tournament poker will help you make tough decisions when approaching the money bubble in MTTs and SNGs.

Poker Independent Chip Model Calculator

An example of ICM is explained by one of tournament poker’s biggest stars Yevgeniy Timoshenko in this video below.

Poker Independent Chip Model Anchor Chart

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